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未来を顕在化する– ブック・オブ・フューチャーズ (Bespokeの『Book of Futures』日本語訳)




Book of Futures日本語訳シリーズ、第12回(ラス前)は[未来を顕在化する]です。



Actualize the future

Futures design is an expansion of the domain of possible actions. It is forming new strategies for ourselves and our organization, and a choice of changing the status quo. Future designers are ultimately change makers.





Establishing possible futures as the actual future is a matter of leadership and influencing oneself and others to take action. Factors like formal power, organizational support and economic resources heavily influence the ability of future designers to initiate action. How people experience and perceive the scenarios, will determine how they engage in actualizing them. It is necessary for future designers to adjust the communication of scenarios to the target group, in order to effectively inspire those that need to be inspired, and efficiently inform those that need information.





Through iterative design, we get a powerful tool to continuously adapt their actions to create impact. We adjust our actions and conversations to successfully engage listeners in actualizing a future scenario as the future reality. Depending on the people we interact with, we will adjust the method and radicalness when presenting the scenarios.




Abstract vs concrete

The declaration of possibility is a key tool to materialize our ideas. And finding the balance of details, certainty and room for imagination is an art of great influencers. In communicating scenarios we distinguish between concrete and abstract communication.

抽象性 対 具体性




Behind the lines of Kennedy’s speech address, the US government had already assigned specific resources for the space program. Directors of key institutions had committed to specific and concrete actions to secure the budget and acquire the knowledge to make the scenario a reality.




The abstraction was the speech itself. Rhetorics and story telling was a key enabler in making Kennedy’s speech one of history’s most famous declarations of possibility. Americans listened, was provoked or inspired by their president as he opened up their imaginations to a future with a man on the moon.




Concrete Scenarios

Possibility is most clearly stated through a declaration. When someone declares a new company vision, strategy of action, plan or similar, it opens up for a new path for the future. Like a sergeant’s commands for his soldiers, concrete scenarios does not leave much room for interpretations of the direction and length of the next move. Being concrete helps people move along a predetermined track.





Abstract Scenarios

Art does not speak to us in words, art speaks to our emotions and sensory perception. Art lets us imagine something that we could not before. Abstract scenarios opens up for imagination and induce new thoughts. As such, art inspires us to create scenarios that ask questions of what is possible rather than giving answers to what is? Abstract scenarios change our approach towards our situation or inquiry, and it opens up for possibility.








Future designers must train their acuity towards the right articulation of future scenarios. Like the abstract vs. concrete scale, the perceived radicalness of scenarios is an important factor for engaging people in its realization.





The radicalness is both a scale of ambition and realism, and it must be balance with the organizational readiness for change. Positioning the scenario as both ambitious and realistic is the creation of a possibility that is both exciting and safe for the others to engage in.




For some, a scenario of cars becoming a household possession, or walking on the moon, seemed both undesirable and unrealistic, but for scientist in NASA or Henry Ford, these scenarios seemed like future certainties.




We distinguish levels of radicalness on a scale from projected through pragmatic, progressive to preposterous.




Projected  Scenarios are a direct continuation of the present.

既定路線的  現在からの継続的延長線上にあるシナリオ。

Pragmatic  Scenarios assume some development of the context and suggest incremental changes.

実用的  コンテクストの特定部分が進化していき斬新的変化をもたらすシナリオ。

Progressive  Scenarios question basic assumptions and suggest changes to core elements.

革新的  基本的前提に疑問を投げかけ根幹に変化をもたらすシナリオ。

Preposterous  Scenarios question existing world views and suggest radical transformation of the context.

夢想的  既存の世界観に疑問を投げかけ「在り方」に先鋭的な変化をもたらすシナリオ。


Happy Collaboration!